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Avtor: jabolko
Datum: 09-03-10 20:30
Še zelo zanimiv članek Nira Shaviva Carbon Dioxide or Solar Forcing?http://www.sciencebits.com/CO2orSolar,ki poudarja predvsem pomen zunanjih klimatskih dejavnikov,kot so aktivnost Sonca in kozmični žarki,ki so po njegovem mnenju motor klimatskih sprememb na našem planetu.
Njegov povzetek:
Summary
As explained above, there is no real direct evidence which can be used to incriminate anthropogenic greenhouse gases as the being the main factor responsible for the observed global warming. The reason these gases were blamed are primarily because (1) we expect them to warm and indeed the global temperature increased, and (2) there is no other mechanism which can explain the warming.
Although this reasoning seems logical, it turns out that (1) We don't even know the sign of the anthropogenic climate driving (because of the unknown indirect aerosol effects), and (2) There is an alternative mechanism which can explain a large part of the warming.
Solar activity can explain a large part of the 20th century global warming, on condition that there is a strong solar/climate link through modulation of the cosmic ray flux and the atmospheric ionization. Evidence for such a link has been accumulating over the past decade, and by now, it is unlikely that it does not exist.
This link also implies that Earth's global temperature sensitivity is also on the low side. Thus, if we double the amount of CO2 by 2100, we will only increase the temperature by about 1°C or so. This is still more than the change over the past century. This is good news, because it implies that future increases in the amount of atmospheric greenhouse gases will not dramatically increase the global temperature, though GHGs will probably be the dominate climate driver.
Prav zanimivo je,da je Shaviv zrasel v državi New York,v solarni hiši ob jezerih,ki so nastala šele pred nekaj tisoč leti,potem ko so se zadnji severno-ameriški ledeniki raztopili.Torej je imel klimatsko tematiko položeno v zibelko.
In še dodatek k eni izmed tem v drugem delu foruma,Niv Shaviv je rojen 6.julija,torej praznuje RD na enak dan kot 14.Dalajlama in nekdanji predsednik ZDA,G.Bush junior.
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jabolko |
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Re: globalno segrevanje - kaj lahko storimo |
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jabolko |
09-03-10 20:30 |
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jabolko |
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